According to the vast majority of rabbis originally the new month was declared upon the observation of the new lunar crescent, as described in the Mishnah and other Tannaitic sources. This changed from observation to fixed calculation, ostensibly by the publication of the calendar's rules by Hillel the Patriarch in 358/9 C.E., which was a response to the inability of the calendrical court to continue functioning due to persecution.
Yet we learn:
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תלמוד בבלי מסכת ראש השנה דף כ עמוד ב אמר שמואל: יכילנא לתקוני לכולה גולה. Shmuel said, "I am able to establish [calculate] the proper date of Rosh Chodesh for the entire Diaspora". |
Shmuel was born about 165 C.E. at Nehardea, in Babylonia and died there about 257 C.E. Shmuel died 100 years before the assumed creation of the Hebrew Calendar by Hillel II.
At least 6 times each year Shmuel can confirm the correctness of his calculation.
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תלמוד בבלי מסכת ראש השנה דף יח עמוד א משנה. על ששה חדשים השלוחין יוצאין: At the beginning of each of six specific months, the messengers go forth to inform Jewish Communities, near and far, which day has been declared the first of the month. |
תלמוד בבלי מסכת חולין דף צה עמוד ב כתב שדר ליה עיבורא דשיתין שני. Shmuel sought the respect from R' Yochanon that R' Yochanon had given to Rav. So Shmuel sends to R' Yochanon sixty years of calendar calculations. That Shmuel can calculate the Hebrew Calendar the Calendrical Court must be basing their decisions on the same calculation. Shmuel had deduced this from analyzing the past decisions of the court and his knowledge of the development of the Ancient Babylonian Calendar.
Only if the Calendar Court is using a calculated calendar can Shmuel do what he claimed to do.